D.O.D Warns of the Dangers of Climate Change

Strengthening Storms

Nature Magazine reported on Jan 28 2010, that:

"The number of strong storms in the western Atlantic could double by the end of the century, despite a drop in the overall number of storms, finds new research.

Morris Bender of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and colleagues applied a two-step ‘downscaling’ technique to increase the resolution of climate models. Using the ensemble-mean of 18 global climate models and 4 regional models, they assessed the climatic response to a ‘business as usual’ emissions pathway. They then employed a hurricane model to simulate storm development in response to the projected warming. In the simulations, the number of category-4 and category-5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean rose 81 per cent by 2100, while the number of storms with winds greater than 65 metres per second increased by 250 per cent. The largest jump in intense storm activity occurred in the western Atlantic Ocean.

The researchers caution that the increasing numbers of the strongest storms could drastically raise the cost of storm damage."

Nature Reports - Climate Change

"Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet"

How can there be global warming if the earth is currently cooling? This is a common and valid question and here is the answer:


This graph shows Global Average Temperature compared with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Index. The AMO Index is the average sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean. The roughly parallel curves of the two parameters show that they are related: the increase in global temperature over time, coincident with the increase in greenhouse gases observed since the Industrial Revolution, is alternately obscured and enhanced by the AMO.

-Michon Scott, NOAA

For more information and continued discussion, visit Climate Watch Magazine published by NOAA Climate Services.

Natural Cycling vs. Climate Change

This is an essential question that will be returned to continually in climate research. One essential key is the rate of change when considering anthropogenic change and natural change. NOAA has been studying the global carbon cycle and this very question, this is what they've found:

"In the geological history of the Earth, carbon has been cycling among large reservoirs in the land (including plants and fossil fuels), oceans, and the atmosphere. This natural cycling of CO2 usually takes millions of years to move large amounts from one system to another. Now we are looking at these changes occurring in centuries or even decades.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by 30 percent. This follows the increase in burning of fossil fuels that began with the rise of industry and transportation."

Read more here.

The Danger of Tipping Points

"There is alarming evidence that important tipping points, leading to irreversible changes in major ecosystems and the planetary climate system, may already have been reached or passed. Ecosystems as diverse as the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic tundra, for example, may be approaching thresholds of dramatic change through warming and drying. Mountain glaciers are in alarming retreat and the downstream effects of reduced water supply in the driest months will have repercussions that transcend generations. Climate feedback systems and environmental cumulative effects are building across Earth systems demonstrating behaviours we cannot anticipate."

-UNEP Climate Change Presentation - June 2009

I will be posting more about tipping points as I continue to delve into Storms of My Grandchildren and the science around climate tipping points.

Solving Climate Change the Answer to Unemployment

Can Climate Change bring down the U.S. economy? Most likely, yes.
Can Climate Change renew the U.S. economy? If we change our thinking, yes.

Check out this article in today's NY Times:
China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy