Sunday, April 18, 2010

Basic Graph #4


"

Although sea levels have been rising since the end of the last glaciation (nearly 11,000 years), the rate of rise has increased over the past 200 years as average global temperatures have increased. The rise is due to two factors, the freshwater being added to the oceans from ice melt in the cryosphere , and the thermal expansion of the oceans due to rises in sea temperature.

The contribution from Antarctica melt water is uncertain, and there is a distinct possibility of surprises from this southern region. The floating ice shelves, notably the Wordie and Larsen A and B shelves, broke up very rapidly during the 1990s, after rapid regional warming. Climate, like other complex systems do not always vary in a smooth fashion, and sudden changes can occur over wide areas. Critical levels, or thresholds may be reached in a system whereupon drastic, and perhaps disastrous results occur.

Threshold events in this case include the complete or partial shutdown of the ocean thermohaline circulatory system, disintegration and melting of Antarctica and Greenland Ice Sheets (the polar caps) , and major changes in the carbon cycle, due to biospheric effect."

The EPA website has more information on the causes and implications of sea level rise due to climate change.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Basic Graph #3


This diagram shows the processes that make up the planet’s energy budget. The earth’s surface absorbs shortwave radiation (red arrows) and re-radiates longwave infrared radiation (blue arrow). The numbers are percentages: For example, 30% of the solar radiation shining on the earth is reflected away.

The earth receives a tremendous amount of energy from the sun. The land, sea, and air absorb some of this energy and reflect some of it back into space. The overall description of this process is called the earth’s energy budget.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Basic Graph #2


The measurements show the steady rise of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere over a forty-seven-year period (1958-2005). Regular wobbles reflect the inhalation and exhalation of the Earth as plants grow, absorbing carbon in the summer and spring, and decay, releasing carbon in the fall and winter.

The measurements shown in this curve represent the world’s longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide and were the first to confirm the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels. As such, this is considered to be among the most important time-series data sets for the study of global climate change.

The data were collected at the Mauna Loa Observatory, perched 3,397 meters (11,140 feet) above sea level on the northern slopes of Earth’s largest volcano, away from dense vegetation or human population that might skew the measurements.

For more information, click here.


Thursday, March 25, 2010

Basic Graph #1


First in the series of basic climate science graphs, this is the basic temperature acceleration over time graph. As you can see, there is some disparities between scientists, but the overall trends are exactly the same.

Monday, March 22, 2010

"We are not bound to win, but we are bound to be true. We are not bound to succeed, but we are bound to let whatever light we have shine."

Abraham Lincoln

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Rising Sea Level: Say Goodbye to Coastal Cities


These images are of Charleston, SC now and then what it is expected to look like in the near future due to sea level rise. It won't take much rise to eradicate coastal areas and even entire island nations such as the Maldives.
Read more.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Climate Change and Health

As there have been many large natural disaster occuring lately, I thought it would be a good time to start looking at the increase in massive storms that will occur due to climate change and how that will affect the global community. First, I want to look at public health.

"A warming climate already contributes to disease and early deaths worldwide, as populations experience greater risks from extreme weather events, poor air quality and infectious disease.

The World Health Organization estimates that 150,000 people die every year from the effects of climate change, and millions more suffer from illness, malnutrition and other health problems due to a warming planet."

This is from a report done by the Environmental Defense Fund. The report also looks at how prepared the United States is for such disasters and their consequences. The findings show that even the U.S. is nowhere near prepared for numerous, large scale disasters, just look at Hurricane Katrina. If the U.S. is not prepared, how well do you think the rest of our world is doing?

Environmental Defense Fund: Coping with Looming Health Dangers

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Frontline Special: Heat


A must see documentary from my favorite station, PBS and the greatest show, Frontline. You can watch it in chapters, which is good for those who don't have an hour and a half to watch all of it.


This is the first chapter, the rest can be accessed
here.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

GHG Flow Chart

Just about everything we do produces harmful greenhouse gases.

Click on the image below to bring it to full size.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Some Inspiring News

Bill Gates has made zero carbon emissions the long term goal of his foundation. Finally some funding for r and d and some global recognition.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts



"Astonished by the summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979."

States an article in the NY Times science section. To read the whole article and see an interactive map, click here.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Strengthening Storms

Nature Magazine reported on Jan 28 2010, that:

"The number of strong storms in the western Atlantic could double by the end of the century, despite a drop in the overall number of storms, finds new research.

Morris Bender of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and colleagues applied a two-step ‘downscaling’ technique to increase the resolution of climate models. Using the ensemble-mean of 18 global climate models and 4 regional models, they assessed the climatic response to a ‘business as usual’ emissions pathway. They then employed a hurricane model to simulate storm development in response to the projected warming. In the simulations, the number of category-4 and category-5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean rose 81 per cent by 2100, while the number of storms with winds greater than 65 metres per second increased by 250 per cent. The largest jump in intense storm activity occurred in the western Atlantic Ocean.

The researchers caution that the increasing numbers of the strongest storms could drastically raise the cost of storm damage."


Tuesday, February 9, 2010

"Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet"

How can there be global warming if the earth is currently cooling? This is a common and valid question and here is the answer:


This graph shows Global Average Temperature compared with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Index. The AMO Index is the average sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean. The roughly parallel curves of the two parameters show that they are related: the increase in global temperature over time, coincident with the increase in greenhouse gases observed since the Industrial Revolution, is alternately obscured and enhanced by the AMO.

-Michon Scott, NOAA

For more information and continued discussion, visit Climate Watch Magazine published by NOAA Climate Services.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Natural Cycling vs. Climate Change


This is an essential question that will be returned to continually in climate research. One essential key is the rate of change when considering anthropogenic change and natural change. NOAA has been studying the global carbon cycle and this very question, this is what they've found:


"In the geological history of the Earth, carbon has been cycling among large reservoirs in the land (including plants and fossil fuels), oceans, and the atmosphere. This natural cycling of CO2 usually takes millions of years to move large amounts from one system to another. Now we are looking at these changes occurring in centuries or even decades.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by 30 percent. This follows the increase in burning of fossil fuels that began with the rise of industry and transportation."

Read more here.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

The Danger of Tipping Points


"There is alarming evidence that important tipping points, leading to irreversible changes in major ecosystems and the planetary climate system, may already have been reached or passed. Ecosystems as diverse as the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic tundra, for example, may be approaching thresholds of dramatic change through warming and drying. Mountain glaciers are in alarming retreat and the downstream effects of reduced water supply in the driest months will have repercussions that transcend generations. Climate feedback systems and environmental cumulative effects are building across Earth systems demonstrating behaviours we cannot anticipate."



I will be posting more about tipping points as I continue to delve into Storms of My Grandchildren and the science around climate tipping points.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Solving Climate Change the Answer to Unemployment

Can Climate Change bring down the U.S. economy? Most likely, yes.
Can Climate Change renew the U.S. economy? If we change our thinking, yes.

Check out this article in today's NY Times:
China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Rising global temps are not natural fluctuations


"Greenhouse gases from human activities are the dominant source of the rise of global average temperatures."




Click here to link to the home page of NASA's Goddard Space Institute. View the featured video on the right labeled 'Global Temperatures Increase'.


Monday, January 25, 2010

Why 350 ppm?

If you have been involved or informed on climate change, then you have heard that the magic number is 350 ppm (parts per million of CO2). If you haven't heard this yet, then this is your introduction to it and why it is such an important number.


"For all of human history until about 200 years ago, our atmosphere contained 275 parts per million of carbon dioxide. Parts per million is simply a way of measuring the concentration of different gases, and means the ratio of the number of carbon dioxide molecules to all of the molecules in the atmosphere. 275 ppm CO2 is a useful amount—without some CO2 and other greenhouse gases that trap heat in our atmosphere, our planet would be too cold for humans to inhabit."

I highly recommend visiting 350.org and seeing how people all over the globe are rallying around the mission to reach 350 ppm.

Friday, January 22, 2010

EPA to regulate GHG's through the Clean Air Act



Finally! The EPA has determined that greenhouse gases are detrimental to the current and future health and safety of human beings.


"The Administrator has considered how elevated concentrations of the wellmixed greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorcarbons and sodium hexafluoride) and associated climate change affect public health by evaluating the risks associated with changes in air quality, increases in temperatures, changes in extreme weather events, increases in food- and water-borne pathogens, and changes in aeroallergens. The evidence concerning adverse air quality impacts provides strong and clear support for an endangerment finding."

The entire study is available on the Federal Register as it is public domain. I read through parts of it and it is very good; very thorough, to the point, and easily understood. I highly recommend reading at least the first two sections.

Must see: The 11th Hour




While I'm on my media kick, I might as well suggest that you all see a great film called The 11th Hour. It was actually produced by Leonardo Dicaprio and features authors, scientists, researchers, activists and officials talking about climate change, it's threats and it's opportunities.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Must read: Storms of my Grandchildren

Here is a great book that you all must read:

"Storms of my Grandchildren" by, James Hansen

Hansen is a world renowned scientist for NASA and just published this book last month. If you are interested in the science of climate change and where we are and where we are going in very cut and dry terms, then you have to read this book. If you want to learn more, click here.

Arctic Sea Ice Could Vanish by 2012



The most dramatic melting has been seen the last five years, bringing us to a tipping point, that we may have already tipped, that will cause the ice to melt at an exponentially rapid pace.

From the NASA website:
Climate feedbacks are processes that change as a result of a change in forcing, and cause additional climate change. An example of this is the "ice-albedo feedback." As the atmosphere warms, sea ice will melt. Ice is highly reflective, while the underlying ocean surface is far less reflective. The darker ocean will absorb more heat, getting warmer and making the Earth warmer overall. A feedback that increases an initial warming is called a "positive feedback." A feedback that reduces an initial warming is a "negative feedback." The ice-albedo feedback is a very strong positive feedback that has been included in climate models since the 1970s.
-View the rest of the page on NASA's Global Climate Change site

Monday, January 18, 2010

Why are glaciers and polar ice so important?

"Beyond the area it covers, the influence of polar ice extends out to ocean circulation and planetary weather patterns. For instance, warm winter temperatures in Europe result from ocean currents partly driven by meltwater from Arctic ice. So changes to polar regions could hold far wider ramifications."

"On a smaller but no less important scale, glaciers dotted about the globe from Kilimanjaro to the Karakoram mountains play significant role in their regional hydrology and climate, but evidence from a variety of sources suggests the majority of the world's glaciers are currently undergoing melting.
The long-term wide-area observations carried out by Earth Observation satellites such as Envisat and ERS provide authoritative evidence of such trends and enable estimation of the consequences should such melting continue into the future. "

-Quotes from the European Space Agency (ESA) for more information, click here

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Receeding glaciers


Argentina's Upsala Glacier; formerly the largest glacier in South America, it now recedes at 450 feet per year.

A receeding glacier in the Andean Mountains. The loss of this glacier threatens the water supply and inherent life of 30 million Peruvians.


These photos are of Riggs Glacier in Muir Inlet at Alaska's Glacier Bay National Park. In 1941, the glacier was 2,000 feet thick, now vegetation grows where the glacier once stood.

The EPA lays out the basics

"For over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation have caused the concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space, somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.

If greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. Scientists are certain that human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will change the planet's climate."

For more information, click here for the EPA page on Climate Change basics.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Study: Global Climate Change Impacts in the US

Here is a link to and the key findings from a comprehensive study done by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released in late 2009.

USGCRP Report


1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.

Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. (p. 13)

2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.

Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. (p. 27)

3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.

Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. (p. 41-106, 107-152)

4. Climate change will stress water resources.

Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. (p. 41, 129, 135, 139)

5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.

Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. (p. 71)

6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.

Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. (p. 111, 139, 145, 149)

7. Threats to human health will increase.

Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. (p. 89)

8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.

Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. (p. 99)

9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.

There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. (p. 76, 82, 115, 137, 142)

10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. (p. 25, 29)

Welcome to the Inferno!

Hello friends, family and fellow global citizens. I know I am not the first to start a blog on Climate Change, but until the world starts to recognize and act on the fact that Climate Change is the greatest threat to our future, I will continue to research and post the facts about this threat here. I hope that this blog will become a place that people can use when looking for information on this subject. I vow to do my best to post only credible sources that are easily understood and clear about the science of climate change, it's implications and the possible means of mitigation. Again, I must be clear about the threat we face. The future of Colorado, of the United States, of the Global Community, of your children and my children is at stake. Everyone is affected and all must understand the consequences of our actions and what actions we must take for our future.