Friday, February 12, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Strengthening Storms
Nature Magazine reported on Jan 28 2010, that:
"The number of strong storms in the western Atlantic could double by the end of the century, despite a drop in the overall number of storms, finds new research.
Morris Bender of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and colleagues applied a two-step ‘downscaling’ technique to increase the resolution of climate models. Using the ensemble-mean of 18 global climate models and 4 regional models, they assessed the climatic response to a ‘business as usual’ emissions pathway. They then employed a hurricane model to simulate storm development in response to the projected warming. In the simulations, the number of category-4 and category-5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean rose 81 per cent by 2100, while the number of storms with winds greater than 65 metres per second increased by 250 per cent. The largest jump in intense storm activity occurred in the western Atlantic Ocean.
The researchers caution that the increasing numbers of the strongest storms could drastically raise the cost of storm damage."
"The number of strong storms in the western Atlantic could double by the end of the century, despite a drop in the overall number of storms, finds new research.
Morris Bender of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and colleagues applied a two-step ‘downscaling’ technique to increase the resolution of climate models. Using the ensemble-mean of 18 global climate models and 4 regional models, they assessed the climatic response to a ‘business as usual’ emissions pathway. They then employed a hurricane model to simulate storm development in response to the projected warming. In the simulations, the number of category-4 and category-5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean rose 81 per cent by 2100, while the number of storms with winds greater than 65 metres per second increased by 250 per cent. The largest jump in intense storm activity occurred in the western Atlantic Ocean.
The researchers caution that the increasing numbers of the strongest storms could drastically raise the cost of storm damage."
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
"Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet"
How can there be global warming if the earth is currently cooling? This is a common and valid question and here is the answer:
This graph shows Global Average Temperature compared with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Index. The AMO Index is the average sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean. The roughly parallel curves of the two parameters show that they are related: the increase in global temperature over time, coincident with the increase in greenhouse gases observed since the Industrial Revolution, is alternately obscured and enhanced by the AMO.
This graph shows Global Average Temperature compared with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Index. The AMO Index is the average sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean. The roughly parallel curves of the two parameters show that they are related: the increase in global temperature over time, coincident with the increase in greenhouse gases observed since the Industrial Revolution, is alternately obscured and enhanced by the AMO.
-Michon Scott, NOAA
For more information and continued discussion, visit Climate Watch Magazine published by NOAA Climate Services.
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